WASHINGTON, October 12, 2023 - The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) and Women2Women released a new poll with nationally recognized research firm The Tarrance Group. With statewide polling of 400 likely Nevada Republican primary voters, the data reveals new insights about top primary voter concerns following the first two GOP presidential debates and Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s removal.
“If the Republican Party wants to project an image of strength and stability, we need to get our house in order fast. An overwhelming majority of Nevada GOP primary voters see Speaker McCarthy’s removal as a sign of the party’s dysfunction and inability to govern. Such public displays of chaos within our own ranks only hurts our members in key swing districts come Election Day," said Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP President and CEO. “The country needs a unified Republican Party that can provide necessary leadership to address the country's challenges and the ongoing conflict in Israel. Coalescing behind a Republican Speaker that has the full support of the House Republican Conference is the first step in doing so.”
The poll was conducted Oct.6-10, 2023. Some key findings include:
Two thirds of voters (68%) think that the removal of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House will have some degree of impact on the Republican majority in Congress’ ability to govern and pass legislation.
Over three-quarters of voters (76%) support Republican Members of Congress working with Democrats in the House to seek compromise on bipartisan solutions for the top issues facing our country.
Voters have mixed opinions regarding last week’s vote to remove Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House, with 48% approving of McCarthy’s removal, 41% disapproving, and 11% unsure. Young voters are especially in favor of McCarthy’s dismissal, with 61% of voters aged 18-44 approving of his removal.
Twenty-seven percent of voters blame former Speaker McCarthy himself for his dismissal, 24% blame Congressman Matt Gaetz, and 21% blame the eight Republican Members who sided with Congressional Democrats in their vote to remove McCarthy.
Donald Trump is still the clear frontrunner for the GOP, with 60% of respondents choosing to vote for him if the primary election were held today.
There is a significant gap to the next tier of candidates. Voters are split on a runner-up candidate, with both Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis tying for second at 11%. Nikki Haley climbed to third at 8%, with Chris Christie and Mike Pence tying at 2%.
METHODOLOGY: This survey was fielded from Oct. 6-10, 2023, among a sample of N=400 2024 likely Nevada Republican voters statewide. Respondents were contacted through telephone sample providers and completed through telephone interviews. The sample was matched to the L2 voter file to verify respondents’ voter registration status, and was weighted to population benchmarks for likely voters statewide on gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and Census region. Calculated the way it would be for a random sample and adjusted to incorporate the effect of weighting, the margin of sampling error is ± 4.9 percentage points. This survey was conducted by The Tarrance Group on behalf of the Republican Main Street Partnership.
ABOUT RMSP: The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) encompasses a broad alliance of conservative, governing Republicans, including more than 90 sitting members in Congress. Led by President and CEO Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP is dedicated to working to enact common sense legislation that gets things done for the American people. RMSP’s members run and win in the most highly contested swing districts in the country.